Thursday, February 19, 2009

Oscar Predictions 2009

I usually participate in an Oscar pool at my job at Laser Blazer. But this year I'm working for Mahalo on Oscar Night. I thought since I'm not participating in an Oscar awards contest this year, it would be fun to post my predictions right here on my site.

For all the world to see.

I think for the record, I will state which film or artist I think WILL win the Oscar and which film or artist SHOULD win.

Best Short Live action film:

Will Win: On The Line

Should Win: ?

I have no idea....this is a shot in the dark. Maybe later on I'll actually watch all the films nominated and make an educated guess. But for now....I like the title of this film.

Best Documentary Short:

Will Win: The Witness From the Balcony of Room 306

Should Win: ?

Same thing here. Just a shot in the dark.

Best Visual Effects:

Will Win: The Dark Knight

Should Win: The Dark Knight

This film should sweep all the technical awards. The film technically was just awe inspiring. Especially in IMAX.

Best Sound Mixing:

Will Win: The Dark Knight

Should Win: The Dark Knight

Best Sound Editing:

Will Win: The Dark Knight

Should Win: The Dark Knight

Best Animated Short:

Will Win: Presto

Should Win Presto

I've actually seen all the films in this category. All though they all have their strengths Presto is simply superior to all of them. If your looking for a dark horse though This Way Up could sneak in here.

Best Song:

Will Win: Jai Ho

Should Win: Jai Ho

I think it's catchy. If it doesn't win O Saya will, Peter Gabriel's song was great too.

Best Score:

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire

I can't even remember the soundtracks to the other films...which is a good sign for Slumdog.

Best Make-up:

Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Should Win: Hellboy 2

Half of the characters in Hellboy 2 weren't even human. But nobody saw this movie so I doubt it'll win.

Best Film Editing:

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Lots of stuff going on in the film and it was well put together.

Best Documentary Feature:

Will Win: Man on Wire

Should Win: Man on Wire

Lots of buzz surrounding the film. I found the film interesting but over-rated.

Best Costume Design:

Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

I think they are going to throw this movie as much love it can get, except when it really counts.

Best Cinematography:

Will Win: Claudio Miranda for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Should Win: Wally Pfister for The Dark Knight

Benjamin Button is the obvious pick here, but Pfister did some amazing work on The Dark Knight. The scenes in IMAX were just breathtaking and the action was all incredibly captured.

Best Art Direction:

Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Button is the sexy pick here.

Best Foreign Film:

Will Win: Waltz with Bashir

Should Win: ?

I'm embarrassed to say that I haven't seen any of the nominated films in this category. A situation that I will remedy when they become available on DVD.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: Doubt

Slumdog will win here but John Patrick Shanley's adaptation of his own play is exceptional, especially when you consider that the students in the film are not in the stage version.

Best Original Screenplay:

Will Win: Milk

Should Win: Milk

I think this is where the film will make it's mark. Even though it deserves much more.

Best Animated Film:

Will Win: Wall-E

Should Win: Wall E

No-Brainer.....had a strong argument to be nominated for Best Picture.

Best Director:

Will Win: Danny Boyle

Should Win: Gus Van Sant

See: Best Picture

Best Supporting Actress:

Will Win: Penelope Cruz

Should Win: Penelope Cruz

Really tough category. All really great performances, but Penelope Cruz stands out for her deranged and sexy character from Vicky Cristina Barcelona.

Best Actress:

Will Win: Kate Winslet

Should Win: Meryl Streep

I honestly think Winslet should've been nominated for her performance in Revolutionary Road. I think she deserves to win for that performance. Meryl Streep's performance was fantastic in Doubt, unique and multi-dimensional. But she's going to get votes taken away from her because she's the great Meryl Streep and is always good, which is a shame.

Best Supporting Actor:

Will Win: Heath Ledger

Should Win: Robert Downey Jr.

If there's any lock it's that Ledger is going to win. But Robert Downey Jr. deserves kudos for pulling this difficult performance off. Comedy is always underestimated during awards season. But the truth is, it's the most difficult type of performance to pull off. Substitute Downey Jr. with any of the nominated actors in his Tropic Thunder role and you'd have a disaster. Now if you reverse that formula and put Downey Jr. in any of those other roles, he'd probably knock it out of the park.

No joke.

Wouldn't you like to see Downey Jr. as the Joker?

Best Actor:

Will Win: Mickey Rourke

Should Win: Mickey Rourke

I'm trusting that the Academy realizes that this is a one shot deal for Rourke. It's a performance we're likely never going to see from him again. The role was tailor made and I'm not sure there are going to be other roles like this out there for him. I'm not saying Sean Penn doesn't deserve the award as well, but I think Rourke's performance is going to be seen as legendary in the years ahead.

Best Picture:

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: Milk

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Slumdog Millionaire not only shouldn't win best shouldn't even be nominated.

Yeah...that's right I said it and in two years you're going to say the same thing too. You're going to be staring at your Slumdog Millionaire DVD on your shelf and think to yourself...

What in the hell was I thinking?

Then you're going to trade it in at Laser Blazer for three bucks with fifty other people and it'll end up in the 4.98 bargain bin with Crash and A Beautiful Mind.

I'm not exactly sure how all this Oscar buzz got started for this film, but in my opinion it's a DEEPLY flawed and at best mediocre motion picture.

Everybody wants to call the film unique and ground breaking, but it's really not. I found the film formulaic, commercial and at times just plain silly.

In any event, Milk is the most important film in this category. Especially in light of recent events and should be recognized as such THIS year. Especially since the Brokeback Mountain debacle.

Instead, a love story about a dude on Who wants to be a Millionaire?.....which was friggin canceled going to win the most prestigious award in film.


For the record the Best five films that SHOULD HAVE been nominated for Best Picture were Milk, Che, Nothing But the Truth directed by Rod Lurie, Revolutionary Road and Doubt.

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